About three weeks ago, markets watched a historic unwind. The manager was directionally right. He didn’t survive being right. That distinction is the whole post.  Leopold Aschenbrenner launched a hedge

On July 16, a Chinese company called Moonshot released a new artificial-intelligence model named Kimi K3. Two things about it rattled the market. It was very good, near the top of

As of late last year, the market has had an index for the price of intelligence. The SDLLMTK Index tracks the going rate for large language model tokens, and lately

Until recently, the usage rule in artificial intelligence was simple. The best models cost the most, and the most expensive were the scarcest. If you wanted to look cutting-edge, you

Every few months a new release clears a benchmark that was supposed to be years away. The models are improving on a curve almost nobody predicted, and the market makes

On Friday, SpaceX is expected to complete the largest initial public offering in history, raising on the order of $75 billion in a single listing1 , roughly 2.5x the previous record2 .

Last month, Cerebras Systems went public, largely on the idea that it had finally solved one of computing’s oldest problems: the bottleneck that forces data to shuttle between memory and the

Aggregate S&P 500 earnings are unusually strong. The Mag 7 prints are doing the heaviest lifting, but breadth has improved, and the headline number has surprised positively for several quarters

When Snowflake leaned into consumption pricing, the market hammered it. Every legacy SaaS metric deteriorated during the transition, and the thesis was declared broken. It turned out to be one

Nursing was supposed to be the safe profession in an AI world.  Hands-on, empathetic, credentialed, performed in person at the bedside of human beings in their most vulnerable moments. If you wanted