Last week, United Airlines made a fascinating move by publishing two sets of guidance for investors—one assuming normal operations, and another accounting for potential disruptions. In a market that craves certainty, this dual approach might seem unconventional, but it reveals something important about leadership during turbulent times.

The Fantasy of “Up and to the Right”

Analysts and economists love a straightforward world where everything trends “up and to the right.” But reality rarely cooperates with this fantasy. The comfortable days of predictable guidance work well in calm waters, not in rough seas. Yet investors and stakeholders still need insights into how companies might navigate through what markets increasingly frame as binary outcomes: everything’s fine, or everything’s terrible.

The truth? There are likely many more potential outcomes between these extremes.

Guidance as a Leadership Test

The importance of guidance isn’t necessarily about getting future numbers exactly right—it’s about demonstrating that management has a firm grasp on their business under varying conditions. Effective guidance should be directionally correct and within an acceptable range when actual results arrive.

Part of our “soft” evaluation of risk centers on how a company has previously set and managed expectations. This isn’t a simple quantitative test of “did they beat their numbers?” but rather an assessment of their strategic thinking and adaptability.

The Coming Leadership Reckoning

The current environment is going to reveal which companies are sea worthy and which are a drift in the current of uncertainty like ghostships in the night. Which management teams can actually navigate through the unfolding adversity? The experience reminds me of what we witnessed during COVID—some leaders charted bold courses through the storm while others were left adrift. Don’t be surprised if a notable number of CEOs “abandon ship” and retire during this period (I wrote about this phenomenon back then).

True captains take the helm during a storm. In a recent conversation I had with a public company CEO, they expressed how they actually relish the opportunities and stimulation that come with increased volatility. The best leaders will shine under these conditions—leaders lead during challenging times.

Time to Earn Your Keep

This is when CEOs truly earn their compensation packages. Many of these zombie CEOs  may be droning about how difficult the “new Trump world” is for business leaders, how everyone is “frozen” and unable to act. How many CEOs are getting a pass on performance right now because of “uncertainty?”

If navigating uncertainty is too hard, perhaps these executives should consider another line of work. Adaptability isn’t a luxury for leadership—it’s a requirement. The market doesn’t reward those who wait for perfect conditions; it rewards those who can make intelligent decisions with imperfect information.

Like United’s creative approach to guidance, the best leaders find ways to communicate clearly and act decisively even when the future is unclear. That’s what separates the quick from the dead in business—not the absence of challenges, but the ability to face them head-on.

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